thomas leverett weblog

super tuesday results

If the Super Tuesday results taught us anything, I would say these are the primary lessons: 1) Warren doesn't have enough pull to even make a difference; she has us academic liberals but not enough others; 2) Biden pulls much better in the wide swath of the country where people sense Bernie is not going to win. That swath is most obviously VA, NC, GA, AL, SC, TN, MN, OK, AR and TX. But that swath would most likely also include OH, MO, and KY. The Dems need some or most of these states to win. Sanders has had the chance to show he can win them, and he didn't.

It could be anti-semitism, or it could be that even Dems are reluctant to make basic changes to the economic system. But my sense is that this election Dems are more about who can win than whether or not to make major economic changes. We have a weaselly, corrupt liar in there, and we want him out. We, myself included, are voting for who we think can win.

In my part of the country as well (NM), people are not really eager for radical change to the economic system. They may know that we need better health care, or some relief for kids overtaken by high prices and debt. But take that swath of the country I just mentioned (which would also include NM, CO, MT, ID, SD, and NE, although they may not matter as much): if you define Biden as "same-old same-old," then Dems have already made their choice between same-old and Sanders clear. Don't make them do it again. Don't make me watch my own state do it; we tend blue, but blue might not win with Sanders.

My problem with Sanders is simply that I don't think he'll win enough of these states. He does well in northern states and among young people, but not with the far more conservative rest of the country. I thought Warren could win, and win it all, but people clearly didn't think like I did. I also thought Buttigieg could win, but he too, did not get enough broad support. "Never underestimate anti-Semitism," I heard someone say. But in response I also heard, "Never underestimate homophobia" and "never underestimate misogyny" - in fact, there are people who believe Warren couldn't win because she's a woman (and because that didn't work last time). I was blind to some of those prejudices.

People are upset that now, we appear to be ready to have an election between old white geezers. Yes, and if Sanders starts a third party, it'll be an election among three old white geezers. But Sanders supporters, in my view, should not be so quick to slam other Democrats, if they still want him to win a Democratic nomination. They should realize that in the vast hinterlands of this country, Democrats who want to win, badly, have decided that Biden is more likely to win than Sanders. He had his chance to win these people, and he didn't. And it's not Warren's fault, either, because her six or seven percent wouldn't have swung it that much, even if it all went to him. One last thing this election taught us: if somebody drops stray voters, like Klobuchar or Buttigieg, they don't tend to go to Sanders. He doesn't pick up the "undecided" vote or the "second favorite" vote. And that doesn't bode well for the general election, when Dems really need to win TX, TN, GA, NC, VA, OH, NM, CO, MN, IA and a few others.

Bite your tongue and get behind whoever the people decide has the best chance. The future of democracy and of your country depend on it. The Russians will be right there with the anti-Biden memes, but don't take the bait. Remember, it's Trump, or......Trump. Is that what you want?

posted by tom @ 5:51 PM