thomas leverett weblog

The one to watch

After reading a little about the Republican debates I have decided that the one to watch is Doug Burgum. I'll explain why.

First, let me say that Trump is doomed. He's crooked, sleazy, and unpopular nationwide, and Republicans know it. He'll never win a fair election and they don't have the stomach for a genuine coup that basically takes over all the vote counting until they count it his way. The vast majority of Republicans will still support him publicly and even tell pollsters they'll vote for him but when the chips are down, and nobody's watching in the voting booth, they won't. They don't want to see another election like the last one.

Here's why I like Burgum:

1. He is definitely right that the center of the party is small-town America and rural America, the west and the south, away from the cities. Yes the party will have to win the suburbs to win it all, but first he has to win the party. So if all they remember about him is that, after the first debate, he's still doing ok. He doesn't have to have great policy suggestions or be associated with anything in particular, but latching on to China is a good place to start.

2. Success is based really on positive contrast to the existing choices. In this case the first existing choice is Trump; the second is Biden. What those two have in common is being too old. Therefore the first positive contrast is that he's young.

The second is that he's genuinely rural and small-town, whereas none of the other candidates are (with the possible exception of Pence). He exudes country-boy cowboy conservatism. Trump on the other hand is a city-slicker, a grifter, a thief, and a liar. And everyone knows it.

Just wait until the voting starts. In my conservative neighborhood I see a couple of DeSantis signs already, which show that there is considerable feeling against Trump. but DeSantis, I think, is not catching on. He's too similar to Trump: city, dishonest, too serious, etc. They don't want "just like Trump only acceptable." They want "something new."

posted by tom @ 6:13 PM