thomas leverett weblog

Surfside building collapse

Let me state the obvious truth in the Surfside building collapse: the seas are rising faster than people thought. The seas will come and get all those buildings, almost no matter what you do to fortify them. It is not a good time to buy into the Seaside real estate market.

Oh yes, they will look for signs of faulty construction, or of an inspection that was supposed to be done last year but got put off because of the pandemic, or whatever. They are already finding places within the concrete where things might have gone wrong. I am not qualified to say there was nothing like that in the construction of that building; I would just grant them the possibility that yes, maybe somebody slipped some faulty construction into some aspect of the building.

But if I'm right, time will prove me right. More buildings will go down, and it will happen sooner rather than later. The Keys will become uninhabitable. All roads will have to be built higher, and how many can they do in a single season? With what money? If they do just the roads to the super-rich people's houses, they'll still have way more than they can do while it's not raining. They'll be fighting a losing battle.

I realize you can't mention climate change in Florida, but I'm in New Mexico, so I'm going to go ahead with this. It's a fact. It will alter lives. It will make a lot of people have to leave the state. Those who think this building is just an abberation of some faulty construction experience, well, it could be, but I guarantee you the rising seas had something to do with it.

People who have had a lot of experience with flooding can tell you: when the rising water comes up and surrounds the lowest supports, there are many that won't hold up to it. It may be there for a couple days or a couple weeks or a couple months. It may be findable, drainable, correctable, or not. It may be fresh water or salt water. But in many cases, the supporting beams are doomed; they aren't up to the task. You don't really want to sink your foundation supports into steadily rising water and hope that the whole thing will float when the time comes. It's not a good way to ensure stable housing.

As for not mentioning climate change, I recommend that Florida change its policy. I know it's the new center of the Republican Party and deniers from miles away come to enjoy its beaches and access to the denier-in-chief. But if you're serious about the place, its people and its future, you'd better start mentioning the words. You're going to need them to survive.

posted by tom @ 1:22 PM