thomas leverett weblog: June 2021

Monday, June 28, 2021

Surfside building collapse

Let me state the obvious truth in the Surfside building collapse: the seas are rising faster than people thought. The seas will come and get all those buildings, almost no matter what you do to fortify them. It is not a good time to buy into the Seaside real estate market.

Oh yes, they will look for signs of faulty construction, or of an inspection that was supposed to be done last year but got put off because of the pandemic, or whatever. They are already finding places within the concrete where things might have gone wrong. I am not qualified to say there was nothing like that in the construction of that building; I would just grant them the possibility that yes, maybe somebody slipped some faulty construction into some aspect of the building.

But if I'm right, time will prove me right. More buildings will go down, and it will happen sooner rather than later. The Keys will become uninhabitable. All roads will have to be built higher, and how many can they do in a single season? With what money? If they do just the roads to the super-rich people's houses, they'll still have way more than they can do while it's not raining. They'll be fighting a losing battle.

I realize you can't mention climate change in Florida, but I'm in New Mexico, so I'm going to go ahead with this. It's a fact. It will alter lives. It will make a lot of people have to leave the state. Those who think this building is just an abberation of some faulty construction experience, well, it could be, but I guarantee you the rising seas had something to do with it.

People who have had a lot of experience with flooding can tell you: when the rising water comes up and surrounds the lowest supports, there are many that won't hold up to it. It may be there for a couple days or a couple weeks or a couple months. It may be findable, drainable, correctable, or not. It may be fresh water or salt water. But in many cases, the supporting beams are doomed; they aren't up to the task. You don't really want to sink your foundation supports into steadily rising water and hope that the whole thing will float when the time comes. It's not a good way to ensure stable housing.

As for not mentioning climate change, I recommend that Florida change its policy. I know it's the new center of the Republican Party and deniers from miles away come to enjoy its beaches and access to the denier-in-chief. But if you're serious about the place, its people and its future, you'd better start mentioning the words. You're going to need them to survive.

Thursday, June 24, 2021

To those of you who still hesitate

Some areas of the US now have over 70% vaccinated; some, like ours, more likely at fifty or below. One county in Missouri is at 13% - what's up with that? It's like they want to be there, sitting ducks, and infect each other, like maybe that would be a fun thing to do.

Anyone who rails about how one in 5 million suffer from a vaccine, is severely math-challenged. We are well over half a million who have died from the virus, so what kind of odds are you thinking are good? One out of a million dies on the highway out here every time they use it, since it's two-lane, windy, cliffs on both sides, deer and elk all over it. These are the people I see buying Powerball tickets. It's ok if you are math-challenged, you can waste your money, but in this case, you are endangering the community.

I am relieved that my own children are now safe. It took a while and we signed up as soon as we could. I figured, no matter what the school did, it couldn't really protect adequately, so I don't really blame them for the numerous times covid passed through the place before (whew!) summer finally came along and everyone went home. In the New Mexico sun, if kids are walking around outside, it's not quite as bad.

But winter's coming, again, and this virus is finding lots of territory to exploit and move into. People just can't stay away from their summer fun, which includes traveling, lots of cars, indoor venues, closed places. I don't want to sound paranoid, but this virus is not going to just go away before winter. It's got too much territory around it.

I've taken a number of vaccines. Being one who has been afraid of shots since I was a little boy, I've never enjoyed the experience. Maybe it feels like resistance to the all-powerful liberal establishment to go hiding in the mountains and say, not me, I'm too far out there, it's not going to come get me. Well, it might. Please consider your fellow citizens; you aren't doing them any favors here.